Leading experts on digital sentience in the world: AI sentience is a serious near-term possibility. Randos on Twitter: anyone aware of how neural nets work knows that AI will never be conscious.
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No one really knows how consciousness works, and no one really knows how the internals of frontier models work, so extremely confident claims of frontier models not being conscious are basically just advertisements of one’s own ignorance of one or both of these facts.
I take my experts most seriously when the subject of their expertise actually exists.